Dealing with seasonal demand without over-ordering
Seasonality punishes you twice if you get it wrong: stock out at the peak and you leave money on the table; over-order and you spend January discounting whatever didn’t sell. The middle path isn’t guesswork — it’s a simple forecast plus reorder points that move with the calendar.
Use last year as your baseline
You don’t need a forecasting model. You need last season’s numbers. Pull what you actually sold, week by week, through your last peak. That history is your starting curve — which is why recording every movement all year matters: come planning time, the data is already there instead of reconstructed from memory.
Adjust the baseline, don’t replace it
Take last year’s curve and nudge it: up if you’re growing, down for a line you’re phasing out, sideways for anything you can’t explain. A rough “about 20% busier than last December” beats a precise model built on hope. Write the assumption down so you can check it afterwards.
Move your reorder points up for the season
Your normal reorder points assume normal demand. Before the ramp, raise them for seasonal items so alerts fire earlier and you reorder while there’s still time. Then — this is the part people forget — lower them again on the way out, so you stop topping up stock you’re about to be stuck with.
Mind your lead times
A 4-week lead time means your peak-season decision happens a month before the peak. Map each key supplier’s lead time onto the calendar and place the long-lead orders first. Missing that window is the single most common way businesses stock out in their best month.
Stage deliveries instead of one big buy
Where a supplier allows it, split the season into two or three smaller orders rather than one giant pre-buy. You carry less cash on the shelf (see working capital in inventory), and you get a mid-season read to course-correct before committing the rest.
Run a post-season review
Right after the peak, compare forecast to actual while it’s fresh. What sold out too early? What got marked down? A snapshot at peak and again at season’s end gives you next year’s baseline for free.